As for last week’s recommendations, the rest of the league has to be looking at the San Francisco 49ers and thinking, “How are we going to defend this team now? ” As expected, do-it-all running back Christian McCaffrey is already up to speed after arriving in a trade, and he was a giant headache for the Los Angeles Rams in Week 8 as the 49ers easily covered the spread in a 31-14 win.
One of the teams in this game is among the 10 best in the NFL by various metrics, both subjective and objective, and the other is one of the worst. Hint: The one that is better is, weirdly, the underdog. TeamNet yards per playOffensive success rateDVOAPFF rankQB QBRArizona Cardinals-0. 9 (30th)minus-6 percent (31st)30th30th19thSeattle Seahawks+0. 3 (10th)plus-3 percent (8th)6th10th4thThat’s without even mentioning that Seattle, then as a 2½-point underdog, beat Arizona, 19-9, in Week 6, despite going 1 for 5 in the red zone. Based on that, this game should be a pick 'em, in my opinion, not bordering on a key number in Arizona’s favor. Return to menuTyreek Hill, over 86. 5 receiving yardsMiami heads to Chicago to face the Bears, a team that is struggling to defend top receivers, especially when those pass catchers also line up in the slot, as Hill does.
So what to make of the Vikings? Minnesota ranks 11th in offensive DVOA, and quarterback Kirk Cousins, making his return to Washington, is the league’s ninth-highest rated passer, according to the game charters at Pro Football Focus. Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1½)Return to menuSunday, 4:05 p. | FoxPick: Seattle Seahawks +2 or +110 on the money line; I played Seahawks -2½ +128 at FanDuel (The point spread has since moved down. )Let me lay out the facts and have you decide which side is the better investment. Don’t worry, it won’t be complicated.
Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022. Vikings vs Commanders spread analysis The likelihood of an offensive struggle on behalf of the Vikings also becomes more likely when examining the defenses they’ve played thus far. Minnesota's offense has had the third-easiest schedule of defenses according to Football Outsiders.
Other than Green Bay, Washington has faced four opponents who, at the time, ranked in the top half of the league in offensive DVOA: the Detroit Lions (eighth at the time of the game), Philadelphia Eagles (fifth), Dallas Cowboys (15th) and Tennessee Titans (14th). All were victorious against the Commanders. Looked at another way, Washington is allowing an average of 15 points per game to offenses ranked in the bottom half of DVOA at the time of their game, winning by an average of four points, while allowing 25. 4 points per game to those in the top half (including Green Bay), losing by an average of 8. 4 points.
If we expect Washington to lower the ceiling of the already-inflated offensive output of the Vikings, and if we anticipate Heinecke's version of this offense to continue to be efficient but lacking in scoring explosiveness, then the Under is the right way to look. Vikings vs Commanders betting trend to know Home underdogs of a field goal or more are 19-10-1 (65. 5%) against the spread in 2022. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Commanders.
At the magical number of a field goal, the Commanders also find themselves in a favorable position against the spread: home underdogs of a field goal or more are 19-10-1 (65. 5%) against the spread in 2022. Vikings vs Commanders Over/Under analysis The total of 43. 5 for this NFC matchup is a modest one for the 2022 season. Neither team has played outstandingly either way this year, with the Vikings going 4-3 towards the Over and the Commanders going 5-3 the opposite way. However as mentioned before, the Commanders have been much better defensively as of late. As a result (and with the help of some blunderous Wentz performances earlier in the season), Washington has now gone under the total in five of its last six.
Chicago has allowed an 80 percent catch rate, 9. 2 yards per target and five touchdown catches to slot receivers this season, resulting in a 119. 0 passer rating on those targets, per data from TruMedia. Only the Las Vegas Raiders and Detroit Lions have been worse in slot coverage. Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, meanwhile, has a 110. 1 passer rating when targeting Hill in the slot, averaging 40 yards per game out of that position. When Hill is out wide, he has produced an additional 64. 7 receiving yards per game. The plays above represent our best bets of the week because our analysis shows their value is the most lucrative compared with what we expect to happen on the field.
The former Memphis hybrid offensive weapon averaged 4. 6 yards per carry in the last two games after just 3. 5 prior to that, and put up a receiving touchdown in each of those games — his first two receiving touchdowns on the season. That well-rounded offensive approach that utilizes its most dangerous and dynamic playmakers is the exact type that can abuse a 21st-ranked Vikings defense according to DVOA. That same defense has also allowed 22 or more points in four of the last five games, however the offense has simply outpaced that scoring during this five-game win streak. But that offense may struggle against a Commanders defense that has turned the page as of late. It held the quickly-improving Justin Fields to seven points, the Packers' offense to 14 points, and the Colts to 16.
In Week 7, the opponent was the Green Bay Packers, and while the numbers said Green Bay had the league’s 10th-best offense, quarterback Aaron Rodgers appeared to be bothered by his thumb injury. Sunday’s win came against the Indianapolis Colts, who entered ranked last in offensive DVOA — plus the Colts gave quarterback Sam Ehlinger his first start since selecting him in the sixth round of the 2021 draft.
Watch Minnesota Vikings live online | NFL Game Pass Vikings live stream info, TV channel: How to watch NFL on TV, stream online. Commanders vs. Vikings live stream info, TV channel: How to watch NFL
Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders - Odds Shark Thirteen #Vikings are not expected to play in today's preseason opener. 2022 live stream: Time, TV schedule and how to watch